A California think tank is sounding the alarm that the state isn’t on track to meet ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals without dramatically picking up the pace.

Complicating the effort, the think tank reported on Tuesday that even where the state has found success, climate-warming gases produced by 2018’s wildfires vastly outstripped pollution cuts across the economy the previous year.

It’s a bleak picture outlined in the California Green Innovation Index, an analysis prepared by research consulting firm Beacon Economics and published by Next 10, a non-partisan think tank that has produced 11 editions of the Index. This, however, is the first time Next 10 has warned — in a forward by founder Noel Perry — that at the current pace, “we would meet our 2030 target 30 years late and our 2050 target more than 100 years late.”

Next 10’s blunt warning comes on the heels of a more optimistic announcement from California’s climate enforcers. And indeed, not everyone thinks the situation is as dire. In August, the Air Resources Board announced that 2017 was the second consecutive year that the state beat its goal to cut greenhouse gas pollution to 1990 levels by 2020. California also generated more electricity from carbon-free than from polluting sources in 2017.

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