The most challenging phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Bay Area just got even more difficult. While it’s unclear just how many variant cases make up the county’s more than 34,000 cases to date, San Mateo County Health officials say they’re confident the mutations sweeping the Bay Area are here.
“Our public health team expects that these variants are in San Mateo County just as they are in the other parts of the Bay Area and across the state,” Deputy Health Chief Srija Srinivasan said at last week’s press briefing. “We remain in a period of widespread transmission.”
The variant might be partially responsible for local case spikes this winter, where case and death rates are up by about 10 times their fall rates. Up until Dec. 1, just 170 people had died all year of COVID-19 in the county. In less than two months, that number doubled to 340.
“It seems to be that it’s more infectious, but not more lethal,” El Camino Hospital Chief Medical Officer Mark Adams said at a town hall last week. “Because of that, it’s rapidly taking over the percentage of all virus out there.”
But local disease experts are struggling to understand the extent of the spread of these variants, especially as local labs operate without a coordinated effort and the funding to map them.
At one University of California, San Francisco, lab, the L452R variant made up just 4 percent of cases studied in early December, according to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle. By late December, it was up to a quarter. Scientists worry that this variant might be more transmissible, especially among asymptomatic people, and is responsible for recent outbreaks reported at Kaiser Permanente in San Jose and in Southern California.
“There's a lot more people who are not sick who can spread the virus,” Adams said. “That’s what's fueled this rapid increase in California.”
The bigger concern is whether the variant is resistant to current vaccines. At a recent Stanford Health Care event, Stanford’s Dr. Kathleen Kenny said current data indicates vaccines are still effective on the mutations, although maybe less so. Kenny also said that although the new mutations may be more contagious, current preventative measures should still be effective.
“More contagious means that if two people are in close contact and one has COVID, the non-immune person is more likely to get infected,” Kenny said. “The masks probably don't need to be 'better,' as they actually work very well. Most of the infections are not related to mask 'failure' but failure to wear masks.”
The worst-case scenario, experts say, is that the variants prolong the pandemic. The more the virus spreads, the more likely it is to continue to mutate — and the less effective our current vaccines may become. Until vaccines become widely available, the best weapon against the pandemic are safety precautions, Adams said.
“We should all be more aggressive about social distancing and mask wearing because of the new variant,” Adams said. “Until the whole pandemic is stopped, all Americans need to keep wearing masks. No matter what, we have to stop the spread.”
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A one word rebuttal to this nonsense is all it takes: Australia.
#5 – Did we save anyone? Answer: No way to prove it. What we DO know: In the U.S., 433,000 COVID-associated deaths out of a population of 331,000,000 as compared against 2,971,387 expected annual deaths. Look here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
The total deaths listed therein is 359K, but we are looking for percentages. In the group 55-64, 42,031 persons out of 42,448,537 died with COVID involvement. That's just under 1:1000...comparable to the historical estimate of influenza deaths each year...and a significant portion of the 8.977:1000 annual death rate. I said significant...not in and of itself deserving of the overly focused attention which it has received.
Now look here: https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/county-data-dashboard
In our County of 762,357, 356 persons have died with a COVID designation. For the aged 64 and under, 54 persons passed (using 50% of the 60-69 group). 54 into 762,357 is 0.000071. 7.1 in 100,000. There is no rationale which justifies the shuttering of our County's economy for so few. In fact, we should have re-opened months ago.
#6 – Yes, I know you are weary of me recounting the past. Tl;dr. You might appreciate this post I made to a group in the UK...I call it “The End Game”. In this Country, we might relabel it “Sleepy Joe's Gambit”.
You asked a question about an exit strategy...
Since corona viruses are seasonal, the government needs to delay until this virus disappears in the summer months. Then the PR department will tout the success of the government's “strategy”. “Look! All those measure we took were correct!” Much back-patting will occur. Select, insider-trusted media will portray the leaders as emotionally/physically damaged persons...due to the great burden they were forced to shoulder. Press conferences will be called to demonstrate how sorry those in charge are for destroying so many lives and futures...but they really had no choice. They were following the science (in their own minds). They were following the best advice that was on offer (at least the opinions they were willing to listen to).
WHEN the virus returns in the Autumn/Winter 2021 period, government can only hope that there is a sufficient pool of the willingly-vaccinated elderly so as to attenuate the death count....or not...depending on how the vaccinated react to an actual live virus challenge...or whether the mRNA vaccines lead to an autoimmune reaction which kills people (See cytokine storm). If mortality is down, credit will be taken for their vaccine roll-out...and (sotto voce) that the rest of the public should really take the jab. If mortality is up, then the public will be blamed for not wholeheartedly accepting the jab (never mentioning the autoimmune possibility).
Critical At That Time: Knowing that lock-downs and economic shutdowns are off the table...because by this time it will be obvious how much lasting damage has been done...the new message will be “We have to learn to live with this virus.” This gives them an “in” for more masking and social distancing (like it worked in previous initiatives), more “credibility” with regard to “getting EVERYONE vaccinated for the good of the Country”, and reinforcing that these dictates are just part of the “new normal.”
Knock, knock – It's Normalcy. Where have you been?
When you get stuck in a way of thinking, it can seem like you've always thought that way. You've never been able to consider something from multiple points of view. You tend to abandon reason in favor of being told what to do / what to think by someone who you perceive as being trustworthy. At least, in a time of uncertainty, such a mindset gives one something to hold onto.
So how has that been working out for you? Are you still worried? Probably so...with the constant harping on the dangers which are presented to us. The dangers are everywhere. Forever evolving. And they are all conspiring to manifest your demise. A Dark Winter is to be endured filled with sacrifices.
OR...
We go back and review what is known:
#1 – Humans lack the ability to control the spread of viruses. It is believed that we can SLOW the spread of viruses if we keep away from each other (See Social Distancing and Lock Downs)...but even with exemplary behavior, it spreads. Blaming the public for not following directives is a deflection / an excuse for failed policies.
#1a – The corollary to #1 is the belief that we can “stop” the “pandemic” (see this article). No, but we can learn to live WITH this now endemic, seasonal virus with better policies. Appropriate advisories to the vulnerable along with an offer for an experimental “vaccine*”...which might reduce symptoms if a person does get sick. The elimination of pointless lock-downs and society-destroying restrictions for the majority. (* = Do your own research. I am not taking it.)
#2 – The near-religious belief that masks can act as barriers against transmission. This is a size problem. Viruses are very very very very small. Mask pore sizes are very large by comparison. And no mask fits so well that exhalations are fully filtered. They are a non-solution. Worse, they give the vulnerable false security that they may go about daily life protected behind their face nappy. No. Sorry.
#3 – A vulnerable sub-population exists, but we, as a society, are not set up to protect them. For example, the aged and frail in nursing homes (where most are not expected to last long anyways) would need to be (along with staff) strictly sequestered. Early data on deaths highlighted this weakness. This requires investment in facilities. And a plan to prepare for “pandemics” (real or constructed). Both require funds from a functioning economy which saves money for emergencies. Thus...
#4 – The costs of attempting to control this virus have pushed our society to destruction. Think of the trillions of dollars of additional Federal debt. The depletion of personal savings. The closures of businesses. The “bridge” loan programs which were offered to keep some afloat during the closures. Where did this money come from? How are we ever going to pay it back? Answer: Not easily and not quickly. The damage done will extend into future generations. And what might we point to as proof that this money made any difference?
"The near-religious belief that masks can act as barriers against transmission. This is a size problem. Viruses are very very very very small. Mask pore sizes are very large by comparison."
The size of viral particles is irrelevant. Odd that you are unaware of this. Viral particles don't float around by themselves. Educate yourself: -- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7417273/
"And what might we point to as proof that this money made any difference?"
Available ICU beds is all the proof needed.
If masks did any good, we could look at locations which imposed mask mandates as compared with those which did not and SEE an obvious benefit of compelled mask wearing. The graphs I have seen show NO benefit. But if you have good feelings about wearing one, please continue.
As to your citation, from their abstract, the study set about to test large, high velocity droplets against eleven common household fabrics using commercial masks as a benchmark. They started with large droplets and found the answers they desired. Not relevant. Sorry.
More on masks here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nRBia0gpoo
RE: ICU beds. The lack of sufficient ICU bed availability (a planning problem) which has been used to continue the failed lock down strategy (and continued economic damage) proved something? Your brevity will need to be relaxed if you wish to make a point.
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