The softness in sales volume that started in the second half of 2022 continues into this year. Sales volume for the first quarter has declined a lot in both the county and on the coast. Home prices are flat for the county as a whole but down for the coast mainly due to many high-end sales last year that boosted prices significantly.
Also, average selling time has increased as well. Inventory remains tight with fewer homes sale-pending. I feel the causes are a combination of high home prices, the Fed raising interest rates nine times since the beginning of 2022 and the stock market being down from the end of 2021.
The Coastside saw sales volume fall by 47 percent this quarter from a comparable period in 2022. The average home price of $1,645,000 here ($1,557,000 median) also took a big tumble of 24 percent from first quarter of 2022 and down 15 percent from full year 2022. It’s even with full year 2021.
Prices ranged from $800,000 for a cottage in Pescadero to $2,999,000 for a ranch in Half Moon Bay on 13 acres. These home price numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt as first quarter last year, and, to a lesser extent, full year 2022 were unusual. There were many more high-end sales not seen here in years, plus a new record-high home sale. Average selling time increased from 26 days for 2022 to 48 days now.
Inventory is relatively flat with last year, however there is a higher ratio of available inventory to total inventory over the past few quarters than there was a year ago. Forty-seven percent of homes sold in less than 30 days, down from 73 percent for 2022, and 34 percent sold over list price, down from 53 percent in 2022. Homes sold now for 100 percent of list price compared to 103 percent in 2022.
Across the county we saw sales volume fall by 31 percent from a comparable period in 2022. The average home price of $2,485,000 ($1,750,000 median price) is down 4 percent from first quarter of 2022 and even with full year 2022 and 2021. Every town in the county, except Brisbane, had sales prices over $1 million with Atherton remaining the most expensive with an average home price of $10.3 million. Prices ranged from $740, 000 for a 1,200-square-foot home in East Palo Alto to $44.5 million for a 7,236-square-foot home on 11 acres in Woodside. Average selling time increased from 20 days in 2022 to 32 days now. Inventory is down 36 percent from first quarter last year. Homes sold now for 101 percent of list price down from 107 percent from full year 2022.
Looking forward I see another weak second quarter due to the low number of homes sale-pending. I also think the average home price will increase from the low level of first quarter as more sales happen. Consumer confidence was shaken with high inflation and rising mortgage rates, but both seem to be moderating now.
Steve Hyman is the broker and owner of Century 21 Sunset Properties and can be reached at century21sunset.com
(3) comments
It’s not optimism. It’s an educated guess looking at homes sale pending and new listings as well as historical low unit volume in first quarter
I also think the average home price will increase from the low level of first quarter as more sales happen - Hahahaha. Good one. Gotta love the unshakable optimism of Realtors.
This is great news. Since we won't allow any to be built, we need housing prices to decline by about 50%.
Check out what is coming: --https://nationalpost.com/news/millions-of-ghost-homes-sit-empty-in-japan-you-can-snag-one-for-as-little-as-550
We won't allow nearly enough immigration and women just ain't making babies like they used to. The time is coming when there will be too many houses. When it does, every property speculator that leveraged all their holdings to the max, so they could buy more property to hold, is going to find out what it is like to be screwed.
Welcome to the discussion.
Log In
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.