Not only is the temperature likely to go up, but so are the number of for-sale signs. While both traditionally happen around this time every year, the inventory level is the highest since 2014.
This is either good or bad news depending on whether you are a buyer or seller. Additionally, the number of home sales pending is low. Inventory now is 27 percent higher than same time last year. Forty-four percent of our inventory is priced over $1.5 million and only 23 percent of that is sale-pending.
As of June 30, there were 107 total listings of which 76 were available and 31 were sale-pending. It’s almost impossible to find homes priced under $500,000, even in the South Coast. However, if you’re looking for a home over $2 million, there are plenty of choices and almost all are available.
Sales volume is less than what it was last year at this time and below the levels in 2015 and 2014. Volume has been one of the lagging indicators and has never recovered from the pre-recession highs back in 2004.
What’s for sale on the coast? Prices of the 107 total listings range from $415,000 for a foreclosure in Pescadero to $17.5 million for an incredible 17,000-square-foot home in Pescadero on 50 acres. Right now just 5 percent of all listings are priced under $750,000 and 24 percent are priced above $2 million.
There is only one listing for sale under $500,000. Between $500,000 and $750,000 there are four listings (three pending). Between $750,000 and $1 million there are 11 (four pending). Between $1 million and $1.5 million there are 44 (16 pending). Between $1.5 and $2 million there are 21 (five pending) and 22 (two pending) above $2 million.
Looking at inventory by town, the South Coast has 21 total listings, Half Moon Bay has 38, El Granada has 21, Moss Beach has 16 and Montara has 11.
This chart shows available and sale-pending inventory over time. Inventory started to rise from 2007-2010 as prices and volume declined. Despite four rate hikes in the discount rate by the Federal Reserve in 2018, mortgage rates are actually lower.
The number of homes sale-pending is my crystal ball into the future. Based on some high-end pending sales, I expect prices to be higher next quarter. Traditionally, inventory peaks in the third quarter and I think that will happen this year as well.
Steven Hyman is the broker and owner of Century 21 Sunset Properties. He can be reached at 726-6346 or at century21sunset.com.